Estimate a market size from first principles
Builds a bottom-up market size estimate with stated assumptions, then checks it against a second method to see if the answers agree.
Estimate the size of this market: {{MARKET}} in {{REGION}}.
Numbers I already know: {{KNOWN_NUMBERS}}
1. Bottom-up estimate: number of potential customers x share likely to buy x price per year. State each assumption, its source or reasoning, and a low and high value.
2. Top-down estimate: start from a larger known market and narrow down. State each step.
3. Compare the two. If they differ by more than 2x, explain which is more believable and why.
4. Give a final range, not a single number.
5. List the 2 assumptions that move the answer most, and how to check them.
Show all maths. Mark any number you are not confident in with [VERIFY].Example output
Bottom-up: 410k UK dental practices x 38% using software x £1,200/year = £187m. Top-down: £2.1bn dental tech spend x 9% for scheduling = £189m. The two methods agree within 5%, so £180m to £200m is a reasonable range.
How to use
Put any real data you have in KNOWN_NUMBERS, even partial. Verify the [VERIFY] numbers with industry reports or government statistics before using the estimate in a pitch.
Why it works
Working through the maths step by step makes errors visible. Comparing two independent methods is a self-consistency check: if both land near the same number, the estimate is more trustworthy than either alone.